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Despite the limited meanings of the terminology, van der Duin (2006, 39) put forward the usage of futures research based on three reasons: 1) "Multiplicity: the term futures refers to thinking in multiple futures (instead of just one) which is nowadays very common in studies of the future. It signifies "a more open-ended inquiry" because it can avoid "the more rigorous connotations of "research" with its implications of scientific objectivity and value neutrality" (McHale 1978, 9). He also regards it as "the more modest and ambiguous term" because it can contain "many elements-prediction, conjecture, imaginative extrapolation, and normative projection" (McHale and McHale 1976 136). On the other hand, its ambiguity can contribute to improve communications between different countries (Bain and Roubelat 1994, 346). According to McHale and McHale (1976 136), futures studies is concerned with "a range of alternative futures", "alerting functions", and "explicit sets of value consideration and preferences. Irvine and Martin, in his book, Foresight in Science: Picking the Winners, use the term foresight to "describe strategic forward-looking technology analysis for policy-making" (Georghiou et al. Foresight emphasizes the priority setting in science and technology, participation of policy making, and the formation of strategy. Thus many practitioners who adopt foresight use terms "foresight" and "technology foresight" interchangeably. The Australian futurist Slaughter, who established the Australian Foresight Institute, has contributed to spread the concept of foresight to academic futures studies and other areas. He states that: Strategic foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent, and functional forward view and to use the insights arising in organizationally useful ways; for example, to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore new markets, products, and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with those of strategic management (Slaughter 2002, 104). History of Futures Studies Future-oriented thoughts are universal and can indeed be traced back to the beginning of human prehistory (Bell 1997a, 2). In every society, even the most backward-looking and custom-bound, men and women have sought-necessarily-to anticipate the effects of their actions, to know whether or not game would appear, crops would flourish, or children grow to maturity. It is impossible to act in the present at any level without some image of the future. Divination, prophecy, and prediction have existed in all cultures throughout history. Still, he is a kind of syndrome and current interest when political and military disasters occurred. Some development of futures studies drew on historical background to reflect how people think of futures and social background to reflect why people need futures-oriented thoughts. The tradition of futureoriented thoughts can be traced back from ancient times to industrial periods. There are four long traditions: religion, utopia, historicism, and science fiction. Most believers strongly expect that the present and the future should be dramatically intervened by God. In particularly, in Christianity, the expectation of the second coming of Jesus and apocalyptic eschatology are core doctrines. Schelling, who was a German philosopher, emphasizes human freedom for creating the world against the nature of God (Hudson 2003, 3-4). To a certain degree, these 4 Bundy (1976, 66) defines futures movement as "all those organized attempts, mainly by institutions, to plan, forecast, study, and predict the future. They are prone to ignore the importance of human roles and needs in futures works. As Godet (1994, 30) states, "the passive attitude to the future is a legacy of religious fatalism. Utopian tradition is able to provide normative and preferred futures to futures studies. It brings our desires, hopes, future possibilities, and critical challenges to current conditions into natural and social sciences (Hudson 2003, 4). Thus, Cornish (1977, 54-56) considers utopianism as the beginnings of modern futures studies. Historicists assume that history is determined by specific conditions and that there are laws for the development of history (Sandberg, 1976, 50-51). He predicts that the future would see the improvement of freedom and the reduction of inequality (Bell 1997b, 35).

A systematic approach to the control of communicable diseases is a key component of humanitarian response, and is crucial to protect the health of affected populations. It is hoped that this manual, by setting standards for communicable disease control in emergencies, will promote effective, coordinated action towards the prevention and control of communicable diseases in emergencies. Where appropriate, the manual provides suggestions for further reading, with references to relevant background material, guidelines and reviews. Finally, whilst shelter, food, water and sanitation sectors are covered, this manual specifically aims to provide detail on health issues. The aim is to identify the main communicable disease threats, outline the public health needs and plan priority interventions. The duration of a rapid assessment depends on the size and geographical distribution of the population affected, the security situation, the conditions of access, transport and logistics, the human resources available and the methods used. A more thorough assessment, with detailed qualitative and quantitative data and intervention plans, should be completed as soon as possible after the rapid assessment. The assessment must be undertaken by well-qualified and experienced epidemiologists. Planning the mission Composition of the health assessment team Collection of background geopolitical data Collection of background health data on host country and country of origin 2. Field visit Data: demography, environment, health data, resource needs Methods: aerial inspection; direct observation; interviews with agencies, the ministry of health and local authorities; collection of health data from medical facilities; rapid estimation of population size by mapping, review of records and rapid surveys 3. Analysis Demographic pyramids Priority health interventions Identification of high-risk groups 4. An initial walk or drive through the area may allow for a first rough idea of the adequacy of shelter, food availability, environmental factors such as drainage and risks of vector breeding, and the general status of the population. During the initial visual inspection, the area should be mapped, even if only crudely. The resulting maps should indicate the affected area, the distribution of the population and the location of resources (medical facilities, water sources, food distribution points, temporary shelters, etc. Mapping also allows the estimation of population data, through the calculation of the total surface area of the camp and of sections of the camps. The method is based on the making of a map of the camp, with its different sections. By using random sampling of several known surface areas one may count the number of persons living in these zones and establish the average population per area. One can calculate the total population of the camp by extrapolating the average population per square into the total surface area of the site (see example). Community organizational structures, normal dietary practices, cultural practices relating to water and hygiene, and preferences for health care should all be recorded. Techniques are rather well codified, and are based on validated sampling and analysis methods in order to provide quantitative estimates of the situation with reasonable accuracy and within acceptable delays. This is essential (a) to guide emergency decisions on where and when resources should be allocated, and (b) as a baseline for monitoring interventions. Inadequate or incomplete assessments can lead to inappropriate responses and waste of scarce resources, and personnel may be needlessly endangered. While most assessments will be a straightforward data collection exercise, a structured and statistically analysable survey may be needed to answer a particular question. It is equally important to undertake re-surveys at intervals, so as to keep abreast of a changing situation. The use of a standard method throughout means that the results of different surveys/assessments can be compared directly. The use of such methods makes it easier to monitor the response and determine its effectiveness. If possible, advice should be taken from a biometrician before formal surveys are undertaken, as it is important to structure the survey so as to get representative and easily analysable results. It is important to understand that there may be security implications of undertaking surveys and assessments in chaotic, unstable situations.

Far Country will cruise during the winter, then sit out the summer on the hard in San Carlos. Both Tom and his sister Monique are longtime sailors who have done extensive cruising and racing in Mexico, the Caribbean and elsewhere. While the sail plan of this Ted Brewer-designed schooner may seems like overkill for a 60-footer, she is certainly a beautiful sight, gliding along over the blue Pacific - especially when flying her massive masthead spinnaker. He and his wife Kary have campaigned Rocket in a variety of races since buying her a year ago. On the all-guy roster are: Bob Macomber, Thomas Todd, John Chambers and Tom Stanford. Power Squadron classes together, so hopefully there will be no surprises, personality-wise. Lovely Wind is undoubtedly unique within this fleet, as she is a British-built shoal-draft design. The Murrays will cruise through the Sea of Cortez after the Rally, and eventually trailer their sloop home from San Carlos. John re-up for another Ha-Ha, as he, more than any other entrant we can think of, deserves to have a bit more Ha-Ha fun. After the Rally, Puerto Vallarta Your connection to yachting services while in Mexico Custom Awning,Canvas,Upholstery,Dodgers, Biminis, ect. They intend to stretch their cruise into an extended honeymoon of at least a year by continuing south along the Central American coast to Panama. Somehow they met during the 2003 Ha-Ha, and their chance acquaintance quickly turned into one of the hottest romances of that event. In this case, though, it seems that Ken, a retired judge, was coaxed and prodded into committing to the Ha-Ha by First Mate David Houtrouw, after his buddy Gary Cook lost his spot on another boat. Formed by two basins with capacity for 621 boats, the range of docks are from 15 to 130 feet length, and are constructed of concrete floating with the latest technology in marinas. Our Administrative Harbor Master provides clearance paper work, tourist and meteorological information, and tourist assistance. In any case, Tom explains that for both he and Darlene, doing the Ha-Ha is "a first step toward gunkholing in the Sea of Cortez off and on until early spring. And Bob, a retired Naval and airline pilot, brought her south from Canada recently without major problems. He bought this sturdy little Westsail just five months ago and began prepping for the Ha-Ha. But prior to that he spent more than four years in Sub-Saharan Africa mining for gold. Paige/Logan Regatta French sailors Rohart Xavier and crew Pascal Rambeau, the reigning Star world champs, had never sailed on San Francisco Bay until the Calvin Paige Regatta, hosted by St. We learned a lot - this is a difficult place to figure out with the winds, current, and fog! The French duo, who took a bronze in Stars at the Athens Olympics and won the Worlds in 2003 and 2005, beat runner-up Jeff Madrigali race and a costly 10th in the last race relegated him to second, still a great showing. Former German Olympian Marc Pickel beat out Erik Lidecis on the tiebreaker for third. Doug Baird, who has campaigned eight different Mercuries over the last 52 years, won the concurrent Joe Logan Regatta again with seeming ease over a 12-boat fleet. Baird has been almost unbeatable this year in Mercuries, winning most of the regattas except the Nationals (SoCal sailor Mike Burch, who finished fifth in the Logan, won that title this year). Ironically, Madro won that race, yet blew his rig out burying his whisker pole while crossing the finish line. Twenty-one boats, all skippered by women with mixed gender crews, sailed three quick races on the Knox/Yellow Bluff track in winds that grew to 20+ knots as the day went on. For the fourth year, proceeds of the fun regatta went to the Tall Ship Semester for Girls, an educational program that gives young women an opportunity to experience time at sea on a tall ship. I - 1) Keala, Wylie Wabbit, Sarah Deeds, 2 points; 2) Q, Schumacher 40, Ashley Perrin, 4; 3) Quiver, N/M 36 mod. Inset, Storer class winners, from left: Duffy Jolley, Sarah Deeds, and Eva Rommel. The weekend doubled as a fundraiser for the Linda Elias Sailing Scholarship, which provides grants to individuals who have advanced the sport of sailing through their accomplishments or by helping others. Sailing with Don Smith, John Pinkney, and Dave Shelton, Ayres topped the fleet with a 2,1,1,6,4 record.

In addition, recurrent weather-related stressors, such as "nuisance flooding" (frequent coastal flooding causing public inconveniences), contribute to overall deterioration of infrastructure like stormwater drainage systems and roads (see Ch. Global Change Research Program There is strong, consistent evidence in the literature that coastal flooding will increase exposure to a variety of health hazards-for example, direct physical impacts and impacts associated with disruption of essential infrastructure- which can result in death, injury, or illness; exacerbation of underlying medical conditions; and adverse effects on mental health. These populations include older adults (especially those who are frail, medically incapacitated, or residing in nursing or assisted living facilities), children, those reliant on electrically powered medical equipment like ventilators and oxygen supplies, those with preexisting health conditions, and people with disabilities. There are varying estimates regarding the exact degree of flooding at any particular location along the coast. Modeling does provide estimated ranges with varying levels of confidence depending on the location. There is greater uncertainty about how coastal flooding will impact the health of specific populations. There are various ways in which these key risk factors interact with and contribute to the vulnerability (comprised of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) of a population. In addition, there is some uncertainty regarding how future demographic and population changes may affect the relative importance of each of these factors. Many qualitative studies have been published regarding how these key risk factors interact with and contribute to the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of a population, and this evidence is of good quality and consistent. Global Change Research Program 116 Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States References 1. Peek, 2004: Poverty and disasters in the United States: A review of recent sociological findings. Benson, 2008: Disaster preparedness and the chronic disease needs of vulnerable older adults. Haque, 2007: Socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk: A case study of climate change and flooding in Bangladesh. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 360, 15111525. Dearry, 2003: Creating healthy communities, healthy homes, healthy people: Initiating a research agenda on the built environment and public health. Kerchner, 2007: Distribution of impacts of natural disasters across income groups: A case study of New Orleans. Meyer-Arendt, 2011: Direct and indirect mortality in Florida during the 2004 hurricane season. Balbus, 2014: Primary Protection: Enhancing Health Care Resilience for a Changing Climate. Hastak, 2011: Impact of flood damaged critical infrastructure on communities and industries. Webb, 2008: A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Winn, 2012: Extreme weather events and the critical importance of anticipatory adaptation and organizational resilience in responding to impacts. Herweijer, 2009: Adaptation to Climate Change: Linking Disaster Risk Reduction and Insurance. Gill, 2011: Hospital admissions for asthma and acute bronchitis in El Paso, Texas: Do age, sex, and insurance status modify the effects of dust and low wind events Rosenberg, 2009: Neither rain nor hail nor sleet nor snow: Provider perspectives on the challenges of weather for home and community care. Murray, 2014: Power outages, extreme events and health: A systematic review of the literature from 2011-2012. Hwang, 2011: Health impact in New York City during the Northeastern blackout of 2003. McGeehin, 2000: An outbreak of carbon monoxide poisoning after a major ice storm in Maine. Yip, 2012: A review of disaster-related carbon monoxide poisoning: Surveillance, epidemiology, and opportunities for prevention. Thoroughman, 2011: Carbon monoxide poisoning after an ice storm in Kentucky, 2009. Muntner, 2009: Missed dialysis sessions and hospitalization in hemodialysis patients after Hurricane Katrina.